Deadline: Friday, 15 November 2013
eference: EAD/PBCWG/0664
Location: Consultant's normal place of residence
Duration: 20 person days | Fee: £450 per day
Closing Date: 15 Nov 2013
Mapping the Terrain: Strengthening Commonwealth Economic Cooperation
Potential Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Economic Cooperation Partnership (RCEP) Free Trade Agreement on Commonwealth Small States and LDCs
Background
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed regional free trade agreement (FTA) currently under negotiation between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam. The negotiating partners have expressed an intention that this proposed 'living agreement' will cover new trade topics and that it should be open to inclusion of new members that are willing to adopt the proposed agreement's high standards. Canada, Mexico and Japan are the most recent countries to join the negotiations.
According to a report by the Asian Development Bank (2008), 'Asia's economies are increasingly vital to each other and to the world. Asia's output today roughly equals that of Europe or North America, and may well be 50% larger than theirs by 2020, in terms of purchasing power parity.' Moreover, with both the US and Europe continuing to post low GDP growth of 1% to 2.5% annually, the centre of the recovery has shifted to Asia. At the November 2012 ASEAN summit, a decision was taken to launch negotiations for the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which takes its place as the second major initiative for region-wide economic integration under negotiation in the Asia-Pacific region, alongside the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Negotiations for the RCEP began in May 2013.
The RCEP is to be an FTA between ASEAN and ASEAN's FTA partners—Australia, the People's Republic of China (PRC), India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. It is envisaged to be a high-quality and mutually-beneficial economic partnership agreement that will broaden and deepen the current FTA engagements. RCEP is targeted for conclusion by the end of 2015. Its sixteen intending members have a combined population of 3 billion, or almost half of the global population, a combined GDP of $17 trillion or about a third of global economic output, and account for about 40% of world trade. It is intended to include an open accession clause, allowing for the participation of any ASEAN FTA partner that chooses to participate later, as well as any other economic partners that decide to join after the completion of RCEP negotiations. TPP, is promoted as an 'ambitious,twenty-first century FTA and by the beginning of 2013, eleven countries (Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand,Peru, Singapore, the US, and Viet Nam) were involved as participants in the negotiations. The RCEP is expected to bring together all five of the ASEAN+1FTAs into an integrated regional economic framework. It would be guided by the 'ASEAN way' where objectives and commitments are driven by a consensus decision process. In addition to liberalizing trade in goods, services, and investment, it is expected to pay more attention to physical, institutional and people-to-people connectivity, narrowing of development gaps, and responding to new developments, such as the emerging international production networks. On the other hand, in addition to the core component of trade in goods and services,and investment, the TPP is to include a more demanding set of commitments on intellectual property rights, labour standards, competition policy, investment rules, government procurement, the environment and the role of state-owned enterprises, all of which are argued to have a vital role in meeting the trade challenges of the 21st century.
Several countries are involved in the TPP and RCEP negotiations: Japan, Singapore,Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, Australia and New Zealand. For theCommonwealth, six (6) of its members are currently involved in the TPP and/or RCEP negotiations namely, Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore. Each also have existing free trade agreements with other Commonwealth members, including Small States and LDCs, as illustrated in Table 1 below.
Table 1: FTAs of Commonwealth countries involved in the TPP and RCEP Negotiations
Commonwealth Countries
Commonwealth FTAs negotiated
Australia
Agreements Concluded:
ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA, Australia-Chile FTA, Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations, Australia-United States FTA, Malaysia-Australia FTA, Singapore-Australia FTA and the Thailand-Australia FTA.
Agreements Under Negotiations:
FTAs currently under negotiations are as follows: Australia-China FTA, Australia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) FTA, Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement, Australia-Japan FTA, Australia-Korea FTA, Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER) Plus, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.
New Zealand
Agreements Concluded:
New Zealand-Hong Kong, China Closer Economic Partnership, New Zealand-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement, ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement, Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (P4), New Zealand-Thailand Closer Economic Partnership, New Zealand-Singapore Closer Economic Partnership, Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership and Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relationship.
Agreements under Negotiation:
Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (Concluded and signed, but not yet ratified), New Zealand-Australia Closer Economic Relations Investment Protocol, New Zealand-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Agreement (concluded but not yet signed), New Zealand-Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Free Trade Agreement, New Zealand-India Free Trade Agreement, New Zealand-Korea Free Trade Agreement, Trans-Pacific Partnership, New Zealand-Hong Kong, Closer Economic, Partnership Investment Protocol, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Trade in Services Agreement
Agreements being considered:
New Zealand and Japan
Canada
Agreements in Force: Canada-Colombia Free Trade Agreement, Canada-Honduras Free Trade Agreement, Canada-Panama Free Trade Agreement, Canada-Peru Free Trade Agreement, Canada-European Free Trade Association (EFTA, Switzerland, Iceland, Norway & Liechtenstein), Canada-Jordan Free Trade Agreement, Canada-Costa Rica Free Trade Agreement, Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement, Canada-Honduras, Canada-Israel Free Trade Agreement, North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Canada-US Free Trade Agreement **Superseded by NAFTA.
Trade Agreements Under Negotiations: Canada - Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Canada - Dominican Republic, Canada - India, Canada - Korea, Canada - Singapore, Canada - Turkey, Negotiations to Modernize the Canada-Costa Rica Free Trade Agreement.
India
Agreements Concluded:
The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC, groups together Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand); Canada-India, China-India, EU-India, India-ASEAN, Japan-India and the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). The SAFTA was agreed to among the seven South Asia countries that form the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC): Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Agreements under Consideration:
India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) are planning to enter into a trilateral free trade agreement. India is also a major player in the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations.
Malaysia
Agreements Concluded:
Malaysia-Japan, Malaysia-Pakistan, Malaysia-New Zealand, Malaysia-India, Malaysia-Chile, Malaysia-Australia, ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan, ASEAN-Korea, ASEAN-India and the ASEAN-Australia and New Zealand FTA.
Agreements under Negotiations:
Malaysia-Turkey, Malaysia-European Union Free Trade Agreement (MEUFTA), Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), Trade Preferential System-Organisation of Islamic Conference(TPS-OIC) and the Developing Eight (D-8) Preferential Tariff Agreement (PTA).
Singapore
Agreements Negotiated
Singapore-Australia FTA, Singapore-China FTA, Singapore-India FTA, Singapore-Japan FTA, Singapore-Jordan FTA, Singapore-Korea FTA, Singapore-New Zealand FTA, Singapore-Panama FTA, Singapore-Peru FTA, the United States and the European Free Trade Association and the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP) or P4. Two more FTAs with Costa Rica and the Gulf Cooperation Council have been signed and are expected to come into force soon.
Agreements under Negotiations
EU-Singapore FTA (EUSFTA)
According to a study by Petri, Plummer and Zhai (2011), both the 'Trans-Pacific track' of regional integration represented by the TPP and 'East Asian track' now represented by the RCEP integration arrangements are likely to produce substantial gains and incentives for enlargement. The effect on the world economy would be small initially, but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $215 billion on the East Asiantrack and $303 billion on both tracks. An eventual region-wide agreement(FTAAP) could generate $862 billion in benefits by 2025.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the TPP are expected to serve as building blocks towards greater regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, the end point of which is envisaged as a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific. Both the TPP and RCEP face formidable challenges in seeking to create a single region-wide agreement among countries that are already linked by multiple bilateral and plurilateral FTAs, which differ significantly in many of their provisions, such as rules of origin. Negotiation of new issues not included in existing FTAs, and the adoption of new modalities for some issues that are included in the existing FTAs, will also be challenging. Other related processes that need to be considered are the ASEAN initiative for establishment of an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015, and the proposals for free trade arrangements among China, Japan and Korea. These could be significant for the future evolution of the RCEP in particular, and also for the overall development of economic integration within the Asia-Pacific region. These developments could have significant opportunities and challenges for many Commonwealth Asia Pacific developing countries, particularly Small States and LDCs.
Objectives
The objective of this paper is to assess the potential implications of the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Regional Economic Cooperation Partnerships on Commonwealth Small States and LDCs.
Tasks
The Consultant will work closely with the Commonwealth Secretariat in undertaking:
Part 1: General Overview
(i) Against the background of recent and current developments in both multilateral and regional trade, discuss and identify the specific objectives and underlying interest of the countries currently involved in the Trans Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership FTA negotiations. Explain the significance of these negotiations within the context of the overall processes of economic integration within the Asia Pacific region, including other relevant developments within those processes, as well as the relationship of Asia Pacific integration processes with the evolving global trade architecture, and the development of global chains;
(ii) Identify and discuss the issues being raised by proposals in the TPP negotiations involving the establishment of significant new rules on emerging trade issues such as regulatory coherence, supply chains management, state-owned enterprises, and access to medicines, electronic dataflows, and trade opportunities for small and medium sized enterprises. Also consider other existing trade issues such as intellectual property, government property, competition policy, and the modalities being adopted for issues suchas services trade, investment and government procurement. Discuss the potential implications of these proposals on Commonwealth Small States and LDCs;
(iii) Identify and discuss the objectives sought to be achieved under the RCEP by countries involved in the negotiations in terms of a modern and comprehensive trade agreement among its members. In doing so discuss proposed coverage of the core negotiating agenda including on trade in goods and services, investment, economic and technical cooperation and dispute settlement.
(iv) Discuss the relevance of these initiatives in facilitating (or otherwise) global production networks
(v) Discuss the relevance of the issues raised by TPP and RCEP in addressing the challenges of existing multiple Asia-Pacific trade agreements.
(vi) Examine the role of ASEAN's own regional integration process, including its initiative to establish the ASEAN Economic Community, in relation to East Asian integration through the TPP, and discuss possible lessons to be drawn by other groups of developing countries in developing their own responses to Asia-Pacific integration processes.
(vii) Consider the relevance of the Pacific Alliance as an approach for countries outside East Asia to engage with East Asian integration.
Part 2: Implications onCommonwealth Small States and LDCs and Recommendations for Future Policy Research and Responses
Based on the results of the above-mentioned analysis, considerthe policy implications, challenges and opportunities arising from these developments and their relevance for the Commonwealth Asia-Pacific developing countries, particularly its Small States and LDC members, and outline recommendations for future policy research,awareness and consensus building in response to these implications opportunities and challenges, with particular reference to the following areas:
(i) The potential role of the TPP and RCEP in the evolution of norms for future international trade rules, and possible responses byCommonwealth Asia-Pacific developing countries, particularly its Small States and LDC members. The potential impact of the TPP and RCEP on patterns and relationships in regional and global trade, including the evolution of global value chains and the global trade architecture, the risks of marginalisation arising from these developments for Commonwealth Small States and LDC members, and approaches for mitigating these risks, including by means of feasible strategies for engaging or connecting with the economic integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region..
(ii) Identify areas of convergences and divergences in these FTAs and indicate potential approaches for developing a set of principles to be considered within the contents of a Guide for Strengthening Commonwealth Economic Cooperation that could be utilised as a capacity building tool for Small States and LDCs highlighting policy options and provisions that could be considered to facilitate future connections with Asia-Pacific integration initiatives.
(iii) Suggest institutional connections that may be useful for the Commonwealth Secretariat and its stakeholders in developing responses to the Asia Pacific regional economic cooperation and integration initiatives, as well as in the mobilisation of support from donors and development partners for related capacity building initiatives.
Expected Outcome, Timeframes and Deliverables
A 30–40 page report, including a 5-6 page Executive Summary, addressing issues outlined.
Duration: 20 working daysover the period 18 November – 20 December, 2013
Details: Receipt of draft report by 13 December, 2013
Receipt of revised report by 20 December 2013, taking into account the views of the Commonwealth Secretariat
Competency and Expertise required
Successful applicants should have a strong knowledge of the Evolving Regional Integration Developments, Policies and Practice affecting the Commonwealth. The prospective candidate should have:
- A postgraduate degree or PhD in international economics, International Trade and Economics; or relevant discipline related to the assignment;
- Possess strong qualitative and analytical skills in the area of international trade, regional trade integration and/or regional financial integration
- Possess demonstrable commitment to the social and economic development of Commonwealth Small States and LDCs
- At least 7-10 years' experience in undertaking in-depth economic analysis and providing expert advice on regional integration policies and processes in developing countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as extensive publication on these issues.
- Working knowledge of international trade rules and disciplines pertaining to multilateral and regional trade integration,particularly within the Commonwealth Asia and Pacific region;
- The successful candidate should also have experience of working at both a national and regional level and experience in regional integration processes across the Commonwealth, including its Small States and LDC members.
Knowledge, Skills and Abilities Requirements
- Considerable knowledge of purchasing methods and procedures; working knowledge of sources of supplies, price trends pertaining to public procurement processes.
- Working knowledge of the economics and trade laws governing regional integration processes
- Appropriate involvement and/or experience in similar projects in developing countries including Commonwealth Small States and least developed countries would be useful. Knowledge of/experience with other international development organisations regional integration projects would be desirable.
- Fluency in English and ability to communicate effectively, orally and in writing.
Submission of Application
Interested eligible candidates must provide information indicating that they are qualified to perform the services and are invited to submit their CV (Curriculum Vitae). Candidates are also required to submit a written proposal outlining proposed methodology for the study.
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